LigaMetrics
Season simulation

Season predictions

Two tables per league: the prediction made before the season started — frozen and never edited — and the current forecast after played matches. Movement shows how results have shifted the model’s expectations.

Ekstraklasa — Pre-season prediction (frozen)

The state before round one. We never update this table — it is the reference point for the whole season.

Pos. Team P(title) P(relegation) Avg points
1 Lech Poznań 39.4% 0.2% 59.8
2 Raków Częstochowa 26.3% 0.4% 57.5
3 Legia Warszawa 6.5% 3.6% 50.7
4 Jagiellonia Białystok 6.3% 3.7% 50.6
5 Pogoń Szczecin 5.7% 4.0% 50.3
6 Górnik Zabrze 4.9% 4.6% 49.6
7 Widzew Łódź 2.7% 8.0% 47.5
8 Wisła Kraków 2.2% 9.8% 46.6
9 Cracovia 1.5% 13.7% 45.2
10 Piast Gliwice 1.1% 15.4% 44.5
11 Korona Kielce 0.9% 17.0% 44.0
12 GKS Katowice 0.8% 19.1% 43.5
13 KGHM Zagłębie Lubin 0.6% 23.5% 42.4
14 Motor Lublin 0.3% 30.3% 40.9
15 Radomiak Radom 0.3% 31.2% 40.7
16 Śląsk Wrocław 0.3% 34.4% 40.1
17 Wieczysta Kraków 0.2% 38.8% 39.3
18 Wisła Płock 0.1% 42.4% 38.5

Ekstraklasa — Current prediction

After every completed round the simulation re-runs the remaining fixtures. Movement = change in position against the pre-season prediction.

Pos. Move Team P(title) P(relegation) Avg points
1 — Lech Poznań 54.9% 0.0% 63.9
2 ▲ 4 Górnik Zabrze 22.0% 0.0% 59.3
3 — Legia Warszawa 8.7% 0.4% 54.7
4 — Jagiellonia Białystok 6.3% 0.9% 53.5
5 ▲ 3 Wisła Kraków 2.6% 2.2% 50.4
6 ▼ 1 Pogoń Szczecin 2.6% 2.4% 50.1
7 ▲ 6 KGHM Zagłębie Lubin 0.6% 7.0% 46.6
8 ▲ 3 Korona Kielce 0.6% 7.4% 46.3
9 ▲ 1 Piast Gliwice 0.5% 8.2% 45.9
10 ▼ 8 Raków Częstochowa 0.4% 11.1% 44.8
11 ▼ 4 Widzew Łódź 0.3% 13.7% 43.9
12 ▼ 3 Cracovia 0.2% 16.3% 43.3
13 ▼ 1 GKS Katowice 0.2% 18.3% 42.9
14 ▲ 3 Wieczysta Kraków 0.0% 36.1% 39.3
15 ▲ 3 Wisła Płock 0.1% 35.8% 39.6
16 — Śląsk Wrocław 0.0% 41.8% 38.2
17 ▼ 2 Radomiak Radom 0.0% 44.8% 38.2
18 ▼ 4 Motor Lublin 0.0% 53.6% 36.4

As of 17 September 2026 · Monte Carlo, 50,000 runs per league.

1. Liga — Pre-season prediction (frozen)

The state before round one. We never update this table — it is the reference point for the whole season.

Pos. Team P(title) P(relegation) Avg points
1 Lechia Gdańsk 34.4% 0.7% 32.4
2 Unia Skierniewice 9.4% 5.1% 27.6
3 Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biała 8.8% 5.5% 27.3
4 ŁKS Łódź 7.9% 5.9% 27.1
5 Bruk-Bet Termalica Nieciecza 6.8% 7.3% 26.5
6 Arka Gdynia 6.0% 7.7% 26.3
7 Miedź Legnica 5.1% 9.5% 25.7
8 Polonia Warszawa 4.6% 10.4% 25.5
9 Ruch Chorzów 4.4% 10.6% 25.4
10 Stal Mielec 2.7% 15.7% 24.0
11 Polonia Bytom 2.2% 17.5% 23.6
12 Chrobry Głogów 2.1% 17.8% 23.5
13 Puszcza Niepołomice 1.5% 21.9% 22.7
14 Stal Rzeszów 1.5% 23.7% 22.5
15 Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki 1.3% 26.8% 21.9
16 Warta Poznań 0.6% 34.2% 20.7
17 Odra Opole 0.5% 37.7% 20.3
18 Pogoń Siedlce 0.4% 42.2% 19.7

1. Liga — Current prediction

After every completed round the simulation re-runs the remaining fixtures. Movement = change in position against the pre-season prediction.

Pos. Move Team P(title) P(relegation) Avg points
1 ▲ 3 ŁKS Łódź 28.8% 0.4% 30.3
2 ▲ 5 Miedź Legnica 17.6% 1.0% 28.9
3 ▲ 12 Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki 11.9% 1.5% 28.1
4 ▲ 1 Bruk-Bet Termalica Nieciecza 8.1% 2.9% 27.3
5 ▼ 4 Lechia Gdańsk 6.0% 4.7% 26.6
6 ▲ 10 Warta Poznań 5.9% 4.1% 26.3
7 ▲ 2 Ruch Chorzów 5.4% 4.8% 26.3
8 — Polonia Warszawa 5.6% 4.9% 26.0
9 ▲ 3 Chrobry Głogów 3.8% 6.2% 25.3
10 ▼ 4 Arka Gdynia 2.9% 8.4% 24.9
11 ▲ 3 Stal Rzeszów 1.5% 15.6% 23.9
12 ▼ 2 Stal Mielec 0.5% 28.6% 21.7
13 ▼ 2 Polonia Bytom 0.4% 31.2% 21.3
14 ▲ 4 Pogoń Siedlce 0.5% 31.6% 21.3
15 ▼ 13 Unia Skierniewice 0.4% 31.3% 21.6
16 ▲ 1 Odra Opole 0.2% 36.2% 20.7
17 ▼ 14 Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biała 0.3% 36.5% 20.5
18 ▼ 5 Puszcza Niepołomice 0.1% 50.2% 19.3

As of 17 September 2026 · Monte Carlo, 50,000 runs per league.

Chance Liga — Pre-season prediction (frozen)

The state before round one. We never update this table — it is the reference point for the whole season.

Pos. Team P(title) P(relegation) Avg points
1 Slavia Praga 73.7% 0.0% 77.4
2 Sparta Praga 15.7% 0.0% 68.5
3 Viktoria Pilzno 9.8% 0.0% 66.3
4 Líšeň 0.7% 0.0% 54.8
5 Slovan Liberec 0.1% 0.0% 47.9
6 Baník Ostrava 0.0% 0.0% 46.6
7 Sigma Olomouc 0.0% 0.1% 46.2
8 Jablonec 0.0% 0.2% 44.2
9 Hradec Králové 0.0% 0.2% 43.8
10 Mladá Boleslav 0.0% 1.0% 40.4
11 Teplice 0.0% 1.9% 38.9
12 Bohemians 1905 0.0% 2.7% 38.1
13 Pardubice 0.0% 2.8% 38.1
14 Slovácko 0.0% 8.1% 35.1
15 Zlín 0.0% 18.0% 32.1
16 Zbrojovka Brno 0.0% 65.1% 25.6

Chance Liga — Current prediction

After every completed round the simulation re-runs the remaining fixtures. Movement = change in position against the pre-season prediction.

Pos. Move Team P(title) P(relegation) Avg points
1 — Slavia Praga 96.5% 0.0% 81.8
2 — Sparta Praga 2.6% 0.0% 65.0
3 ▲ 2 Slovan Liberec 0.4% 0.0% 58.4
4 ▼ 1 Viktoria Pilzno 0.4% 0.0% 57.5
5 ▲ 2 Sigma Olomouc 0.1% 0.0% 52.5
6 ▲ 3 Hradec Králové 0.0% 0.0% 47.4
7 ▲ 1 Jablonec 0.0% 0.0% 46.7
8 ▲ 2 Mladá Boleslav 0.0% 0.0% 44.8
9 ▲ 7 Zbrojovka Brno 0.0% 0.1% 43.8
10 ▲ 1 Teplice 0.0% 0.2% 42.5
11 ▼ 5 Baník Ostrava 0.0% 0.2% 42.1
12 — Bohemians 1905 0.0% 0.9% 39.5
13 — Pardubice 0.0% 3.9% 36.5
14 — Slovácko 0.0% 16.7% 31.6
15 ▼ 11 Líšeň 0.0% 17.5% 31.5
16 ▼ 1 Zlín 0.0% 60.6% 25.2

Chance Liga: P(relegation) covers direct relegation only — the relegation play-off (14th–15th) is outside the model.

As of 17 September 2026 · Monte Carlo, 50,000 runs per league.

SuperSport HNL — Pre-season prediction (frozen)

The state before round one. We never update this table — it is the reference point for the whole season.

Pos. Team P(title) P(relegation) Avg points
1 Dinamo Zagrzeb 86.3% 0.0% 77.0
2 Hajduk Split 7.3% 0.1% 62.8
3 Rijeka 6.0% 0.2% 61.8
4 Varaždin 0.1% 7.4% 48.2
5 Lokomotiva Zagrzeb 0.1% 10.8% 46.7
6 Osijek 0.1% 11.7% 46.2
7 Slaven Koprivnica 0.0% 19.0% 44.0
8 Istra 1961 0.0% 21.9% 43.2
9 HNK Gorica 0.0% 30.1% 41.5
10 NK Rudeš 0.0% 99.0% 21.8

SuperSport HNL — Current prediction

After every completed round the simulation re-runs the remaining fixtures. Movement = change in position against the pre-season prediction.

Pos. Move Team P(title) P(relegation) Avg points
1 — Dinamo Zagrzeb 77.0% 0.0% 75.0
2 — Hajduk Split 16.5% 0.0% 66.4
3 — Rijeka 5.3% 0.0% 61.4
4 ▲ 2 Osijek 0.6% 0.3% 54.5
5 ▼ 1 Varaždin 0.6% 0.4% 54.1
6 ▲ 2 Istra 1961 0.0% 7.7% 44.7
7 ▼ 2 Lokomotiva Zagrzeb 0.0% 12.3% 42.7
8 ▼ 1 Slaven Koprivnica 0.0% 22.3% 40.2
9 — HNK Gorica 0.0% 58.8% 34.6
10 — NK Rudeš 0.0% 98.1% 22.7

As of 17 September 2026 · Monte Carlo, 50,000 runs per league.

A season forecast is a probability distribution, not a promise. Early in the season every result shifts expectations hard — these tables will move. The model has historically not beaten the closing line; this is analysis, not betting signals.