LigaMetrics
Analytics for leagues and betting markets

We estimate probabilities — we don’t tip.

We collect and process data — a proprietary, advanced analytics engine estimates event probabilities, which we compare against the betting markets on offer. We show analysis and statistics.

Get notified How it works
4 leagues modelled
3 896 matches backtested
0.630 vs 0.624 Brier: model vs market

The Brier score measures forecast accuracy — the mean squared error of assigned probabilities against actual outcomes (0 = perfect, lower is better). The gap between the model and the market’s closing line is about 1% in the market’s favour.

Yes, the market is still better. We measure this publicly.

Model coverage

Available leagues

  • Poland Ekstraklasa
  • Poland 1. Liga
  • Czechia Chance Liga
  • Croatia SuperSport HNL

Other leagues are currently in preparation.

Four pillars

F1

The tool

Probabilistic forecasts across every market, season simulations, injuries and squad valuations.

F2

Honest analysis

A track record benchmarked against the closing line. Calibration and misses — public, unretouched.

F3

Knowledge and market reality

CLV, devigging, variance, bankroll. Poland’s 12% turnover tax and the overrounds of licensed bookmakers — calculated.

F4

Paper trading

Betting on paper with a full CLV log. Learning discipline without money on the line. (coming soon)

What is free, and what subscription covers

Free access

  • Full track record and model performance — no login
  • Every round settled: predictions vs results, misses included
  • Every match of the round: model 1X2 next to the devigged market, plus over/under 2.5 goals and BTTS
  • Education: market reality, methodology, calibration

Subscription coming soon

  • Full probabilistic predictions, all markets — 4 leagues
  • Model–market deviations after devig (analysis, not signals)
  • Full Monte Carlo season simulations, per team
  • Paper trading with a CLV ledger — test your strategy and build discipline without risking money

Pricing follows once legal review is complete. You pay for data and analytical tools — not for tips. We do not sell tips and never will.

We state our baseline plainly

In historical backtests our model does NOT beat the bookmakers’ closing line — on any market. That is a public hypothesis we measure, not a promise of edge. Probabilities are analysis, not betting signals.

Full version — spring 2027

We already publish predictions and settle every round — publicly, no login. Leave your email and we will let you know when the subscription and full reports go live. No spam, no betting nudges.

By subscribing you agree to be contacted by email about the launch of the service and accept the terms described in the Privacy policy. Subscription requires confirmation (double opt-in). You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy policy

Contact

Write to us

If you have questions or remarks about how this service works, or an idea for what is missing or could be added — write to us.
Your voices matter to us and will be taken into account.

Contact e-mail info@ligametrics.pl