LigaMetrics
Track record

Predictions & performance

Every prediction timestamped before kickoff, every round settled publicly — misses shown as prominently as hits. First match predictions arrive with round one of the 2026/27 season.

Round

Predictions for the current round

Predictions published 2026-09-17 10:15 · season 2026/27

Ekstraklasa

round 9
Match Model 1 / X / 2 Market after devigging O 2.5 BTTS
18 September Widzew Łódź — Wieczysta Kraków 46% 26% 28% 49% 25% 25% 56% 59%
18 September Wisła Kraków — Śląsk Wrocław 48% 26% 26% 57% 23% 21% 55% 58%
19 September GKS Katowice — Cracovia 38% 27% 34% 41% 28% 32% 52% 57%
19 September Korona Kielce — Raków Częstochowa 31% 29% 39% 45% 27% 28% 45% 51%
19 September Motor Lublin — Górnik Zabrze 33% 27% 40% 27% 27% 46% 54% 58%
20 September Jagiellonia Białystok — Legia Warszawa 38% 28% 34% 34% 27% 39% 50% 55%
20 September Lech Poznań — Radomiak Radom 55% 26% 19% 72% 16% 11% 50% 51%
20 September Piast Gliwice — Pogoń Szczecin 36% 28% 36% 39% 27% 34% 48% 54%
20 September KGHM Zagłębie Lubin — Wisła Płock 43% 28% 29% 40% 28% 32% 49% 54%

1. Liga

round 9

No odds available for this league — the market column stays empty. A model without a benchmark is just a forecast, not a comparison.

Match Model 1 / X / 2 Market after devigging O 2.5 BTTS
18 September Polonia Bytom — Ruch Chorzów 36% 26% 38% — — — 58% 62%
18 September Warta Poznań — Puszcza Niepołomice 42% 31% 27% — — — 39% 46%
19 September Lechia Gdańsk * — Stal Mielec 53% 24% 23% — — — 61% 62%
19 September Miedź Legnica — Stal Rzeszów 46% 25% 29% — — — 61% 63%
19 September Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki — ŁKS Łódź 33% 27% 40% — — — 55% 59%
19 September Polonia Warszawa — Chrobry Głogów 45% 27% 28% — — — 53% 57%
19 September Bruk-Bet Termalica Nieciecza — Odra Opole 48% 27% 26% — — — 53% 57%
20 September Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biała — Unia Skierniewice 41% 27% 32% — — — 55% 59%
20 September Pogoń Siedlce — Arka Gdynia 29% 30% 41% — — — 42% 49%

Caveat on this forecast: Lechia Gdańsk — the model rates this team from last season results, but the squad broke up after relegation and the club cannot register new players. Its match probabilities are overstated — the market prices it far lower. We leave them uncorrected and say so plainly, rather than quietly patching the numbers.

Chance Liga

round 9
Match Model 1 / X / 2 Market after devigging O 2.5 BTTS
19 September Líšeň — Slovan Liberec 24% 26% 51% 20% 25% 55% 50% 53%
19 September Mladá Boleslav — Zbrojovka Brno 46% 26% 28% 41% 28% 31% 54% 57%
19 September Pardubice — Bohemians 1905 42% 29% 30% 48% 27% 25% 44% 50%
19 September Slovácko — Baník Ostrava 30% 28% 41% 38% 29% 33% 45% 51%
20 September Hradec Králové — Teplice 49% 27% 24% 52% 27% 22% 46% 50%
20 September Jablonec — Zlín 61% 22% 16% 63% 22% 15% 56% 53%
20 September Sigma Olomouc — Sparta Praga 25% 25% 49% 33% 28% 39% 54% 56%
20 September Slavia Praga — Viktoria Pilzno 59% 23% 18% 56% 24% 20% 55% 53%

SuperSport HNL

round 8
Match Model 1 / X / 2 Market after devigging O 2.5 BTTS
18 September NK Rudeš — Slaven Koprivnica 27% 25% 48% 27% 27% 46% 61% 63%
19 September Istra 1961 — HNK Gorica 45% 30% 25% 49% 27% 24% 42% 48%
19 September Varaždin — Osijek 43% 29% 28% 43% 30% 27% 45% 51%
20 September Dinamo Zagrzeb — Lokomotiva Zagrzeb 73% 18% 10% 77% 14% 9% 63% 51%
20 September Rijeka — Hajduk Split 39% 31% 30% 43% 29% 28% 40% 47%

The gap between model and market is analysis, not a signal to bet. In historical testing the model does not beat the closing line, and betting those deviations produced negative ROI.

Settled

Settled rounds: what the model said, what happened

Pre-match predictions placed next to the results. Misses sit in the same table as hits — there is no separate, quieter place for what went wrong.

Settlements as of

Ekstraklasa

round 1
called right 5/9 league total 31/69 · 45%
Match Score Model 1 / X / 2 Market on result O 2.5 BTTS Call
24 July Pogoń Szczecin — Legia Warszawa 0:1 40% 29% 31% 38% 51% under 56% no miss
24 July Radomiak Radom — Wieczysta Kraków 2:1 43% 27% 30% 36% 56% over 60% yes right
25 July Górnik Zabrze — Śląsk Wrocław 2:1 46% 29% 25% 53% 48% over 53% yes right
25 July Jagiellonia Białystok — Korona Kielce 1:0 47% 28% 25% 49% 52% under 56% no right
25 July Lech Poznań — Cracovia 0:0 51% 28% 21% 22% 48% under 52% no miss
26 July Raków Częstochowa — Wisła Płock 1:2 53% 28% 19% 17% 44% over 47% yes miss
26 July Widzew Łódź — Motor Lublin 2:2 48% 28% 25% 24% 52% over 56% yes miss
26 July Wisła Kraków — GKS Katowice 2:1 48% 28% 24% 42% 50% over 54% yes right
27 July KGHM Zagłębie Lubin — Piast Gliwice 2:0 37% 30% 32% 37% 45% under 52% no right

The underlined cell is the result that actually occurred. "Call" refers to the 1X2 market only: whether the outcome the model rated highest actually happened. The notes next to O 2.5 and BTTS say how those markets settled — they are not a verdict on the model.

Ekstraklasa

round 2
called right 5/9 league total 31/69 · 45%
Match Score Model 1 / X / 2 Market on result O 2.5 BTTS Call
31 July Motor Lublin — Jagiellonia Białystok 1:2 33% 27% 41% 40% 58% over 62% yes right
31 July Wisła Płock — Widzew Łódź 0:0 32% 30% 39% 31% 46% under 53% no miss
1 August Piast Gliwice — Wisła Kraków 4:3 38% 30% 32% 40% 45% over 52% yes right
1 August Wieczysta Kraków — Lech Poznań 1:2 26% 28% 46% 50% 51% over 55% yes right
2 August GKS Katowice — Radomiak Radom 3:1 38% 29% 33% 46% 49% over 55% yes right
2 August Legia Warszawa — KGHM Zagłębie Lubin 3:1 49% 28% 24% 60% 50% over 54% yes right
2 August Śląsk Wrocław — Raków Częstochowa 2:1 28% 30% 41% 33% 43% over 50% yes miss
3 August Cracovia — Pogoń Szczecin 0:2 36% 29% 35% 27% 50% under 56% no miss
15 September Korona Kielce — Górnik Zabrze 0:2 36% 30% 34% 36% 43% under 50% no miss

The underlined cell is the result that actually occurred. "Call" refers to the 1X2 market only: whether the outcome the model rated highest actually happened. The notes next to O 2.5 and BTTS say how those markets settled — they are not a verdict on the model.

Ekstraklasa

round 3
called right 3/8 · 1 postponed league total 31/69 · 45%
Match Score Model 1 / X / 2 Market on result O 2.5 BTTS Call
8 August Pogoń Szczecin — Motor Lublin 3:1 51% 25% 23% 47% 58% over 60% yes right
7 August Wisła Kraków — Wisła Płock 2:1 49% 27% 24% 52% 52% over 55% yes right
8 August Korona Kielce — Legia Warszawa 1:1 34% 30% 37% 30% 46% under 52% yes miss
9 August Lech Poznań — Piast Gliwice 3:0 49% 29% 22% 60% 43% over 48% no right
8 August Radomiak Radom — Górnik Zabrze 1:3 36% 30% 34% 39% 45% over 52% yes miss
9 August Jagiellonia Białystok — Widzew Łódź 0:2 38% 30% 32% 30% 46% under 52% no miss
9 August Śląsk Wrocław — Cracovia 0:0 35% 30% 35% 28% 46% under 53% no miss
15 September Raków Częstochowa — KGHM Zagłębie Lubin 2:3 55% 26% 19% 22% 49% over 50% yes miss
postponed new date: 12 October GKS Katowice — Wieczysta Kraków — 42% 26% 32% — 58% 61% —

Match postponed (confirmed) — the new date is shown next to the match as soon as it is set. The prediction stays: it was published before the postponement was announced. It counts neither in the numerator nor the denominator of the tally — there is no result to compare it against yet. It settles once the match is played.

The underlined cell is the result that actually occurred. "Call" refers to the 1X2 market only: whether the outcome the model rated highest actually happened. The notes next to O 2.5 and BTTS say how those markets settled — they are not a verdict on the model.

Ekstraklasa

round 4
called right 4/7 · 2 postponed league total 31/69 · 45%
Match Score Model 1 / X / 2 Market on result O 2.5 BTTS Call
14 August Legia Warszawa — Radomiak Radom 5:0 51% 27% 22% 60% 52% over 54% no right
15 August Widzew Łódź — Korona Kielce 1:2 44% 30% 27% 23% 44% over 50% yes miss
16 August Górnik Zabrze — Wisła Kraków 2:1 38% 30% 32% 47% 46% over 53% yes right
postponed new date: 17 December Wisła Płock — Lech Poznań — 26% 29% 45% — 46% 51% —
15 August KGHM Zagłębie Lubin — Śląsk Wrocław 2:1 43% 28% 29% 41% 52% over 56% yes right
16 August Cracovia — Raków Częstochowa 2:1 34% 31% 35% 37% 40% over 48% yes miss
postponed new date: 16 December Jagiellonia Białystok — Pogoń Szczecin — 37% 28% 35% — 51% 56% —
16 August Motor Lublin — GKS Katowice 1:0 43% 27% 30% 38% 55% under 59% no right
15 August Piast Gliwice — Wieczysta Kraków 3:4 44% 29% 28% 29% 48% over 53% yes miss

Match postponed (confirmed) — the new date is shown next to the match as soon as it is set. The prediction stays: it was published before the postponement was announced. It counts neither in the numerator nor the denominator of the tally — there is no result to compare it against yet. It settles once the match is played.

The underlined cell is the result that actually occurred. "Call" refers to the 1X2 market only: whether the outcome the model rated highest actually happened. The notes next to O 2.5 and BTTS say how those markets settled — they are not a verdict on the model.

Ekstraklasa

round 5
called right 3/9 league total 31/69 · 45%
Match Score Model 1 / X / 2 Market on result O 2.5 BTTS Call
21 August Cracovia — Wieczysta Kraków 3:2 46% 27% 27% 45% 52% over 56% yes right
23 August GKS Katowice — Wisła Płock 5:0 45% 27% 28% 49% 53% over 57% no right
22 August Korona Kielce — Motor Lublin 1:1 44% 27% 28% 27% 52% under 56% yes miss
22 August Piast Gliwice — Legia Warszawa 1:1 33% 30% 37% 28% 45% under 52% yes miss
23 August Pogoń Szczecin — Wisła Kraków 2:2 45% 27% 28% 27% 55% over 58% yes miss
23 August Radomiak Radom — KGHM Zagłębie Lubin 0:0 39% 28% 33% 28% 52% under 57% no miss
22 August Śląsk Wrocław — Widzew Łódź 3:3 33% 29% 38% 28% 48% over 54% yes miss
3 September Lech Poznań — Jagiellonia Białystok 2:1 51% 25% 24% 58% 57% over 58% yes right
3 September Raków Częstochowa — Górnik Zabrze 1:2 46% 28% 26% 30% 48% over 53% yes miss

The underlined cell is the result that actually occurred. "Call" refers to the 1X2 market only: whether the outcome the model rated highest actually happened. The notes next to O 2.5 and BTTS say how those markets settled — they are not a verdict on the model.

Ekstraklasa

round 6
called right 3/9 league total 31/69 · 45%
Match Score Model 1 / X / 2 Market on result O 2.5 BTTS Call
30 August Górnik Zabrze — GKS Katowice 2:3 42% 28% 30% 24% 48% over 53% yes miss
28 August Legia Warszawa — Śląsk Wrocław 1:1 52% 27% 21% 22% 49% under 52% yes miss
29 August Motor Lublin — Piast Gliwice 0:2 39% 28% 33% 31% 50% under 56% no miss
29 August Radomiak Radom — Cracovia 2:1 36% 28% 36% 33% 50% over 55% yes miss
30 August Raków Częstochowa — Jagiellonia Białystok 2:5 45% 30% 26% 29% 42% over 48% yes miss
30 August Widzew Łódź — Lech Poznań 2:3 33% 30% 37% 41% 43% over 50% yes right
29 August Wisła Kraków — Wieczysta Kraków 2:0 50% 25% 25% 50% 60% under 61% no right
28 August Wisła Płock — Korona Kielce 0:2 35% 30% 35% 37% 43% under 50% no right
29 August KGHM Zagłębie Lubin — Pogoń Szczecin 0:0 34% 28% 39% 29% 52% under 57% no miss

The underlined cell is the result that actually occurred. "Call" refers to the 1X2 market only: whether the outcome the model rated highest actually happened. The notes next to O 2.5 and BTTS say how those markets settled — they are not a verdict on the model.

Ekstraklasa

round 7
called right 4/9 league total 31/69 · 45%
Match Score Model 1 / X / 2 Market on result O 2.5 BTTS Call
4 September Piast Gliwice — GKS Katowice 3:0 39% 28% 33% 38% 48% over 54% no right
5 September Korona Kielce — Wisła Kraków 1:1 36% 29% 36% 28% 47% under 53% yes miss
5 September Motor Lublin — Legia Warszawa 2:3 31% 27% 42% 47% 53% over 57% yes right
5 September Widzew Łódź — Radomiak Radom 0:0 46% 28% 26% 25% 48% under 53% no miss
6 September Cracovia — Górnik Zabrze 0:1 39% 29% 33% 35% 47% under 53% no miss
6 September Jagiellonia Białystok — Śląsk Wrocław 2:1 53% 25% 22% 54% 55% over 56% yes right
6 September Lech Poznań — Raków Częstochowa 1:0 44% 28% 27% 54% 46% under 51% no right
7 September Pogoń Szczecin — Wisła Płock 1:1 53% 25% 22% 26% 54% under 55% yes miss
7 September Wieczysta Kraków — KGHM Zagłębie Lubin 1:1 42% 26% 31% 26% 57% under 60% yes miss

The underlined cell is the result that actually occurred. "Call" refers to the 1X2 market only: whether the outcome the model rated highest actually happened. The notes next to O 2.5 and BTTS say how those markets settled — they are not a verdict on the model.

Ekstraklasa

round 8
called right 4/9 league total 31/69 · 45%
Match Score Model 1 / X / 2 Market on result O 2.5 BTTS Call
11 September Raków Częstochowa — Motor Lublin 2:1 56% 24% 19% 53% 55% over 55% yes right
11 September Wisła Kraków — Jagiellonia Białystok 2:0 39% 26% 35% 41% 56% under 60% no right
12 September Górnik Zabrze — Lech Poznań 2:1 32% 28% 40% 33% 50% over 55% yes miss
12 September Śląsk Wrocław — Korona Kielce 1:2 38% 28% 34% 36% 49% over 54% yes miss
12 September KGHM Zagłębie Lubin — GKS Katowice 2:1 41% 27% 32% 35% 54% over 58% yes right
13 September Legia Warszawa — Widzew Łódź 1:1 45% 28% 27% 27% 47% under 52% yes miss
13 September Pogoń Szczecin — Wieczysta Kraków 2:0 49% 25% 27% 46% 60% under 62% no right
13 September Wisła Płock — Cracovia 3:1 35% 29% 37% 39% 48% over 54% yes miss
14 September Radomiak Radom — Piast Gliwice 0:2 38% 29% 34% 33% 47% under 53% no miss

The underlined cell is the result that actually occurred. "Call" refers to the 1X2 market only: whether the outcome the model rated highest actually happened. The notes next to O 2.5 and BTTS say how those markets settled — they are not a verdict on the model.

1. Liga

round 1
called right 4/7 league total 27/69 · 39%
Match Score Model 1 / X / 2 Market on result O 2.5 BTTS Call
24 July Odra Opole — Arka Gdynia 0:1 30% 29% 42% 43% 47% under 53% no right
24 July Polonia Bytom — Warta Poznań 4:3 44% 29% 27% 51% 45% over 50% yes right
25 July Lechia Gdańsk — Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki 0:3 61% 21% 18% 38% 66% over 62% no miss
25 July Pogoń Siedlce — ŁKS Łódź 1:1 27% 28% 44% 25% 47% under 52% yes miss
25 July Stal Rzeszów — Chrobry Głogów 1:5 40% 26% 34% 37% 58% over 62% yes miss
26 July Puszcza Niepołomice — Polonia Warszawa 0:1 35% 28% 37% 35% 50% under 55% no right
26 July Bruk-Bet Termalica Nieciecza — Ruch Chorzów 2:0 44% 26% 31% 45% 59% under 62% no right

The underlined cell is the result that actually occurred. "Call" refers to the 1X2 market only: whether the outcome the model rated highest actually happened. The notes next to O 2.5 and BTTS say how those markets settled — they are not a verdict on the model.

No prediction:
  • 26 July · Unia Skierniewice — Stal Mielec
  • 27 July · Miedź Legnica — Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biała
Teams with no history in the current fit — the model had nothing to work from, so these matches stay out of the settlement.

1. Liga

round 2
called right 5/9 league total 27/69 · 39%
Match Score Model 1 / X / 2 Market on result O 2.5 BTTS Call
1 August Arka Gdynia — Stal Rzeszów 4:0 46% 26% 28% 62% 57% over 60% no right
3 August Chrobry Głogów — Odra Opole 0:1 45% 28% 27% 31% 49% under 53% no miss
31 July ŁKS Łódź — Polonia Bytom 2:1 48% 26% 27% 55% 56% over 59% yes right
31 July Lechia Gdańsk — Warta Poznań 0:3 57% 25% 19% 58% 53% over 53% no miss
2 August Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki — Puszcza Niepołomice 1:0 42% 28% 31% 35% 51% under 55% no right
1 August Pogoń Siedlce — Bruk-Bet Termalica Nieciecza 1:2 28% 27% 45% 49% 52% over 56% yes right
1 August Polonia Warszawa — Unia Skierniewice 3:1 55% 23% 22% 52% 62% over 61% yes right
2 August Ruch Chorzów — Miedź Legnica 0:2 41% 26% 33% 28% 56% under 60% no miss
2 August Stal Mielec — Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biała 3:3 43% 26% 31% 27% 55% over 58% yes miss

The underlined cell is the result that actually occurred. "Call" refers to the 1X2 market only: whether the outcome the model rated highest actually happened. The notes next to O 2.5 and BTTS say how those markets settled — they are not a verdict on the model.

1. Liga

round 3
called right 1/9 league total 27/69 · 39%
Match Score Model 1 / X / 2 Market on result O 2.5 BTTS Call
9 August ŁKS Łódź — Chrobry Głogów 1:2 46% 27% 27% 20% 51% over 55% yes miss
8 August Miedź Legnica — Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki 0:1 46% 25% 29% 29% 59% under 61% no miss
8 August Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biała — Lechia Gdańsk 2:2 33% 23% 44% 15% 69% over 69% yes miss
7 August Polonia Bytom — Pogoń Siedlce 2:2 48% 26% 25% 24% 51% over 54% yes miss
7 August Polonia Warszawa — Ruch Chorzów 1:1 41% 26% 33% 28% 56% under 60% yes miss
8 August Puszcza Niepołomice — Odra Opole 3:1 41% 29% 30% 41% 42% over 49% yes right
8 August Stal Mielec — Stal Rzeszów 1:1 43% 25% 32% 21% 61% under 63% yes miss
9 August Bruk-Bet Termalica Nieciecza — Warta Poznań 1:2 45% 27% 28% 22% 51% over 55% yes miss
10 August Unia Skierniewice — Arka Gdynia 2:0 25% 25% 50% 29% 57% under 58% no miss

The underlined cell is the result that actually occurred. "Call" refers to the 1X2 market only: whether the outcome the model rated highest actually happened. The notes next to O 2.5 and BTTS say how those markets settled — they are not a verdict on the model.

1. Liga

round 4
called right 3/9 league total 27/69 · 39%
Match Score Model 1 / X / 2 Market on result O 2.5 BTTS Call
17 August Arka Gdynia — Puszcza Niepołomice 3:0 43% 29% 28% 57% 42% over 49% no right
15 August Chrobry Głogów — Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biała 1:1 41% 26% 34% 28% 58% under 61% yes miss
16 August ŁKS Łódź — Bruk-Bet Termalica Nieciecza 2:1 42% 26% 32% 45% 55% over 59% yes right
15 August Odra Opole — Warta Poznań 3:1 33% 30% 37% 43% 43% over 50% yes miss
14 August Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki — Stal Rzeszów 1:1 43% 25% 32% 24% 63% under 65% yes miss
15 August Pogoń Siedlce — Polonia Warszawa 1:0 27% 27% 45% 22% 50% under 55% no miss
14 August Ruch Chorzów — Lechia Gdańsk 1:0 33% 26% 41% 57% 58% under 61% no miss
16 August Stal Mielec — Polonia Bytom 5:2 40% 26% 33% 44% 56% over 60% yes right
16 August Unia Skierniewice — Miedź Legnica 0:3 38% 25% 37% 36% 62% over 65% no miss

The underlined cell is the result that actually occurred. "Call" refers to the 1X2 market only: whether the outcome the model rated highest actually happened. The notes next to O 2.5 and BTTS say how those markets settled — they are not a verdict on the model.

1. Liga

round 5
called right 4/9 league total 27/69 · 39%

No odds available for this league — the market column stays empty. There is nothing to compare the model against.

Match Score Model 1 / X / 2 Market on result O 2.5 BTTS Call
21 August Chrobry Głogów — Warta Poznań 0:1 39% 29% 32% — 45% under 51% no miss
23 August ŁKS Łódź — Stal Mielec 4:0 47% 26% 27% — 53% over 56% no right
21 August Lechia Gdańsk — Pogoń Siedlce 1:0 58% 24% 18% — 54% under 53% no right
23 August Miedź Legnica — Arka Gdynia 2:0 42% 27% 31% — 51% under 56% no right
22 August Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biała — Odra Opole 1:1 44% 27% 30% — 53% under 57% yes miss
22 August Polonia Bytom — Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki 2:2 43% 25% 32% — 61% over 63% yes miss
23 August Puszcza Niepołomice — Unia Skierniewice 0:1 45% 26% 29% — 54% under 57% no miss
24 August Stal Rzeszów — Ruch Chorzów 0:1 36% 25% 39% — 60% under 63% no right
22 August Bruk-Bet Termalica Nieciecza — Polonia Warszawa 1:3 40% 26% 34% — 58% over 61% yes miss

The underlined cell is the result that actually occurred. "Call" refers to the 1X2 market only: whether the outcome the model rated highest actually happened. The notes next to O 2.5 and BTTS say how those markets settled — they are not a verdict on the model.

1. Liga

round 6
called right 3/9 league total 27/69 · 39%
Match Score Model 1 / X / 2 Market on result O 2.5 BTTS Call
30 August Arka Gdynia — Polonia Bytom 1:1 43% 26% 31% 24% 54% under 58% yes miss
30 August Chrobry Głogów — Ruch Chorzów 2:0 36% 27% 37% 31% 51% under 56% no miss
28 August Odra Opole — ŁKS Łódź 0:0 29% 28% 44% 29% 49% under 54% no miss
28 August Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki — Bruk-Bet Termalica Nieciecza 2:2 36% 25% 39% 27% 60% over 63% yes miss
29 August Pogoń Siedlce — Stal Mielec 2:0 33% 28% 39% 32% 48% under 54% no miss
29 August Polonia Warszawa — Lechia Gdańsk 2:4 35% 25% 40% 22% 59% over 62% yes right
29 August Puszcza Niepołomice — Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biała 2:0 38% 29% 33% 37% 44% under 50% no right
28 August Unia Skierniewice — Stal Rzeszów 0:1 39% 26% 36% 24% 58% under 61% no miss
30 August Miedź Legnica — Warta Poznań 2:1 44% 28% 29% 50% 48% over 53% yes right

The underlined cell is the result that actually occurred. "Call" refers to the 1X2 market only: whether the outcome the model rated highest actually happened. The notes next to O 2.5 and BTTS say how those markets settled — they are not a verdict on the model.

1. Liga

round 7
called right 2/8 · 1 postponed league total 27/69 · 39%
Match Score Model 1 / X / 2 Market on result O 2.5 BTTS Call
4 September Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki — Warta Poznań 1:0 38% 28% 34% 40% 49% under 54% no right
4 September Bruk-Bet Termalica Nieciecza — Lechia Gdańsk 2:1 35% 25% 40% 45% 62% over 64% yes miss
5 September Miedź Legnica — Chrobry Głogów 1:1 45% 26% 29% 26% 55% under 58% yes miss
5 September Stal Mielec — Odra Opole 1:1 44% 27% 29% 28% 51% under 56% yes miss
5 September Stal Rzeszów — Polonia Warszawa 2:1 36% 26% 38% 29% 60% over 63% yes miss
6 September Arka Gdynia — ŁKS Łódź 1:1 36% 29% 35% 28% 47% under 53% yes miss
postponed new date: 15 October Pogoń Siedlce — Puszcza Niepołomice — 32% 31% 37% — 40% 47% —
6 September Polonia Bytom — Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biała 0:0 44% 26% 30% 27% 55% under 58% no miss
7 September Ruch Chorzów — Unia Skierniewice 3:1 50% 26% 23% 53% 52% over 55% yes right

Match postponed (confirmed) — the new date is shown next to the match as soon as it is set. The prediction stays: it was published before the postponement was announced. It counts neither in the numerator nor the denominator of the tally — there is no result to compare it against yet. It settles once the match is played.

The underlined cell is the result that actually occurred. "Call" refers to the 1X2 market only: whether the outcome the model rated highest actually happened. The notes next to O 2.5 and BTTS say how those markets settled — they are not a verdict on the model.

1. Liga

round 8
called right 5/9 league total 27/69 · 39%
Match Score Model 1 / X / 2 Market on result O 2.5 BTTS Call
11 September Polonia Warszawa — Polonia Bytom 2:2 46% 25% 29% 25% 60% over 62% yes miss
11 September Puszcza Niepołomice — ŁKS Łódź 1:2 31% 30% 39% 41% 44% over 51% yes right
12 September Chrobry Głogów — Pogoń Siedlce 0:0 47% 28% 24% 27% 46% under 50% no miss
12 September Ruch Chorzów — Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biała 3:3 43% 28% 29% 26% 48% over 54% yes miss
12 September Warta Poznań — Arka Gdynia 3:0 36% 31% 34% 36% 41% over 49% no right
13 September Lechia Gdańsk — Miedź Legnica 2:1 48% 25% 27% 39% 62% over 63% yes right
13 September Odra Opole — Stal Rzeszów 0:1 36% 27% 37% 24% 53% under 58% no right
13 September Unia Skierniewice — Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki 3:2 34% 27% 39% 45% 55% over 59% yes miss
14 September Stal Mielec — Bruk-Bet Termalica Nieciecza 1:2 36% 26% 38% 36% 58% over 61% yes right

The underlined cell is the result that actually occurred. "Call" refers to the 1X2 market only: whether the outcome the model rated highest actually happened. The notes next to O 2.5 and BTTS say how those markets settled — they are not a verdict on the model.

Chance Liga

round 1
called right 5/7 league total 38/62 · 61%

No odds available for this league — the market column stays empty. There is nothing to compare the model against.

Match Score Model 1 / X / 2 Market on result O 2.5 BTTS Call
25 July Teplice — Bohemians 1905 3:1 41% 29% 29% — 41% over 48% yes right
25 July Viktoria Pilzno — Slovan Liberec 1:3 58% 24% 18% — 53% over 52% yes miss
25 July Zbrojovka Brno — Sparta Praga 3:1 7% 15% 78% — 64% over 47% yes miss
25 July Zlín — Baník Ostrava 0:1 24% 25% 51% — 53% under 55% no right
26 July Hradec Králové — Pardubice 2:1 50% 27% 23% — 47% over 50% yes right
26 July Jablonec — Sigma Olomouc 2:1 39% 27% 33% — 50% over 55% yes right
26 July Slavia Praga — Slovácko 5:1 83% 12% 5% — 64% over 40% yes right

The underlined cell is the result that actually occurred. "Call" refers to the 1X2 market only: whether the outcome the model rated highest actually happened. The notes next to O 2.5 and BTTS say how those markets settled — they are not a verdict on the model.

No prediction:
  • 27 July · Líšeň — Mladá Boleslav
Teams with no history in the current fit — the model had nothing to work from, so these matches stay out of the settlement.

Chance Liga

round 2
called right 3/8 league total 38/62 · 61%
Match Score Model 1 / X / 2 Market on result O 2.5 BTTS Call
31 July Sparta Praga — Zlín 3:1 80% 14% 7% 76% 67% over 47% yes right
1 August Baník Ostrava — Slavia Praga 0:4 14% 22% 64% 56% 53% over 49% no right
1 August Slovan Liberec — Teplice 0:1 55% 26% 20% 20% 47% under 49% no miss
1 August Slovácko — Líšeň 1:1 56% 24% 20% 24% 53% under 53% yes miss
1 August Viktoria Pilzno — Zbrojovka Brno 1:1 76% 16% 8% 20% 65% under 49% yes miss
2 August Bohemians 1905 — Hradec Králové 0:0 31% 29% 40% 28% 43% under 49% no miss
2 August Pardubice — Jablonec 0:2 32% 27% 41% 34% 49% under 54% no right
2 August Sigma Olomouc — Mladá Boleslav 2:2 53% 24% 23% 26% 56% over 57% yes miss

The underlined cell is the result that actually occurred. "Call" refers to the 1X2 market only: whether the outcome the model rated highest actually happened. The notes next to O 2.5 and BTTS say how those markets settled — they are not a verdict on the model.

Chance Liga

round 3
called right 6/8 league total 38/62 · 61%
Match Score Model 1 / X / 2 Market on result O 2.5 BTTS Call
7 August Zbrojovka Brno — Slovan Liberec 0:1 24% 27% 49% 35% 49% under 52% no right
8 August Mladá Boleslav — Sparta Praga 2:0 16% 21% 62% 22% 60% under 56% no miss
8 August Teplice — Viktoria Pilzno 5:5 19% 25% 57% 27% 50% over 50% yes miss
8 August Zlín — Bohemians 1905 0:2 36% 28% 36% 34% 47% under 52% no right
9 August Hradec Králové — Baník Ostrava 2:1 40% 28% 32% 44% 46% over 52% yes right
9 August Jablonec — Slovácko 1:0 55% 25% 20% 56% 50% under 51% no right
9 August Líšeň — Sigma Olomouc 1:2 16% 22% 62% 54% 57% over 54% yes right
9 August Slavia Praga — Pardubice 2:1 83% 12% 5% 75% 65% over 41% yes right

The underlined cell is the result that actually occurred. "Call" refers to the 1X2 market only: whether the outcome the model rated highest actually happened. The notes next to O 2.5 and BTTS say how those markets settled — they are not a verdict on the model.

Chance Liga

round 4
called right 4/8 league total 38/62 · 61%
Match Score Model 1 / X / 2 Market on result O 2.5 BTTS Call
15 August Pardubice — Mladá Boleslav 1:1 38% 27% 35% 27% 52% under 57% yes miss
15 August Slovácko — Sigma Olomouc 1:2 26% 27% 46% 38% 47% over 52% yes right
15 August Sparta Praga — Teplice 4:1 71% 19% 11% 67% 58% over 48% yes right
15 August Viktoria Pilzno — Zlín 3:2 77% 15% 8% 76% 66% over 50% yes right
16 August Baník Ostrava — Líšeň 1:0 70% 18% 11% 63% 60% under 51% no right
16 August Slovan Liberec — Slavia Praga 1:1 17% 24% 60% 27% 50% under 49% yes miss
2 September Bohemians 1905 — Jablonec 1:1 31% 28% 40% 29% 46% under 51% yes miss
2 September Zbrojovka Brno — Hradec Králové 1:0 31% 28% 41% 41% 46% under 52% no miss

The underlined cell is the result that actually occurred. "Call" refers to the 1X2 market only: whether the outcome the model rated highest actually happened. The notes next to O 2.5 and BTTS say how those markets settled — they are not a verdict on the model.

Chance Liga

round 5
called right 5/8 league total 38/62 · 61%
Match Score Model 1 / X / 2 Market on result O 2.5 BTTS Call
22 August Líšeň — Sparta Praga 0:4 7% 14% 79% 65% 65% over 47% no right
22 August Mladá Boleslav — Slovácko 2:1 50% 26% 25% 49% 51% over 54% yes right
22 August Slavia Praga — Bohemians 1905 2:2 82% 13% 5% 16% 62% over 40% yes miss
22 August Zlín — Slovan Liberec 0:1 22% 25% 53% 47% 51% under 53% no right
23 August Sigma Olomouc — Pardubice 3:1 54% 25% 21% 47% 51% over 52% yes right
23 August Teplice — Zbrojovka Brno 0:2 47% 27% 26% 30% 47% under 51% no miss
9 September Hradec Králové — Viktoria Pilzno 0:0 25% 26% 50% 28% 51% under 54% no miss
9 September Jablonec — Baník Ostrava 3:0 43% 27% 30% 46% 49% over 54% no right

The underlined cell is the result that actually occurred. "Call" refers to the 1X2 market only: whether the outcome the model rated highest actually happened. The notes next to O 2.5 and BTTS say how those markets settled — they are not a verdict on the model.

Chance Liga

round 6
called right 4/7 · 1 postponed league total 38/62 · 61%
Match Score Model 1 / X / 2 Market on result O 2.5 BTTS Call
29 August Baník Ostrava — Sigma Olomouc 1:0 39% 27% 34% 38% 50% under 55% no right
postponed new date: 14 October Bohemians 1905 — Mladá Boleslav — 38% 27% 35% — 49% 55% —
29 August Pardubice — Líšeň 1:2 58% 24% 18% 15% 52% over 51% yes miss
30 August Slovan Liberec — Hradec Králové 2:0 47% 28% 25% 47% 45% under 49% no right
30 August Sparta Praga — Slavia Praga 0:3 30% 27% 43% 36% 50% over 55% no right
30 August Teplice — Jablonec 2:0 33% 28% 40% 37% 48% under 53% no miss
30 August Viktoria Pilzno — Slovácko 1:1 73% 18% 10% 18% 60% under 49% yes miss
29 August Zbrojovka Brno — Zlín 3:2 45% 27% 28% 56% 49% over 53% yes right

Match postponed (confirmed) — the new date is shown next to the match as soon as it is set. The prediction stays: it was published before the postponement was announced. It counts neither in the numerator nor the denominator of the tally — there is no result to compare it against yet. It settles once the match is played.

The underlined cell is the result that actually occurred. "Call" refers to the 1X2 market only: whether the outcome the model rated highest actually happened. The notes next to O 2.5 and BTTS say how those markets settled — they are not a verdict on the model.

Chance Liga

round 7
called right 5/8 league total 38/62 · 61%
Match Score Model 1 / X / 2 Market on result O 2.5 BTTS Call
5 September Líšeň — Viktoria Pilzno 0:3 10% 17% 74% 60% 64% over 51% no right
5 September Sigma Olomouc — Bohemians 1905 3:0 54% 26% 21% 51% 48% over 50% no right
5 September Slavia Praga — Zbrojovka Brno 4:0 83% 12% 5% 75% 66% over 41% no right
5 September Slovácko — Pardubice 0:0 38% 28% 34% 28% 45% under 51% no miss
6 September Hradec Králové — Sparta Praga 2:1 21% 25% 54% 28% 51% over 52% yes miss
6 September Jablonec — Slovan Liberec 1:2 36% 28% 36% 32% 46% over 52% yes miss
6 September Mladá Boleslav — Baník Ostrava 4:0 37% 27% 36% 41% 53% over 57% no right
6 September Zlín — Teplice 1:3 33% 27% 40% 37% 49% over 54% yes right

The underlined cell is the result that actually occurred. "Call" refers to the 1X2 market only: whether the outcome the model rated highest actually happened. The notes next to O 2.5 and BTTS say how those markets settled — they are not a verdict on the model.

Chance Liga

round 8
called right 6/8 league total 38/62 · 61%
Match Score Model 1 / X / 2 Market on result O 2.5 BTTS Call
12 September Bohemians 1905 — Slovácko 2:0 43% 29% 28% 44% 42% under 48% no right
12 September Slovan Liberec — Mladá Boleslav 3:0 52% 25% 23% 56% 53% over 55% no right
12 September Sparta Praga — Jablonec 2:0 64% 21% 15% 62% 58% under 53% no right
12 September Zbrojovka Brno — Líšeň 2:1 46% 27% 27% 59% 51% over 55% yes right
13 September Baník Ostrava — Pardubice 1:2 49% 27% 24% 27% 49% over 52% yes miss
13 September Teplice — Slavia Praga 0:2 10% 18% 72% 58% 57% under 46% no right
13 September Viktoria Pilzno — Sigma Olomouc 2:3 58% 23% 19% 20% 56% over 55% yes miss
13 September Zlín — Hradec Králové 1:2 25% 27% 48% 45% 49% over 52% yes right

The underlined cell is the result that actually occurred. "Call" refers to the 1X2 market only: whether the outcome the model rated highest actually happened. The notes next to O 2.5 and BTTS say how those markets settled — they are not a verdict on the model.

SuperSport HNL

round 1
called right 2/5 league total 21/34 · 62%
Match Score Model 1 / X / 2 Market on result O 2.5 BTTS Call
31 July Dinamo Zagrzeb — Slaven Koprivnica 2:0 75% 16% 9% 77% 65% under 52% no right
1 August HNK Gorica — Osijek 0:2 36% 30% 33% 32% 41% under 48% no miss
1 August Istra 1961 — Lokomotiva Zagrzeb 2:3 38% 30% 32% 29% 44% over 51% yes miss
2 August Rijeka — NK Rudeš 2:1 79% 15% 6% — 59% over 41% yes right
2 August Varaždin — Hajduk Split 2:1 28% 30% 41% 26% 41% over 48% yes miss

The underlined cell is the result that actually occurred. "Call" refers to the 1X2 market only: whether the outcome the model rated highest actually happened. The notes next to O 2.5 and BTTS say how those markets settled — they are not a verdict on the model.

SuperSport HNL

round 2
called right 2/4 · 1 postponed league total 21/34 · 62%
Match Score Model 1 / X / 2 Market on result O 2.5 BTTS Call
9 August Hajduk Split — Istra 1961 2:2 59% 25% 16% 21% 48% over 47% yes miss
8 August Lokomotiva Zagrzeb — HNK Gorica 3:1 47% 28% 25% 42% 45% over 50% yes right
postponed date not set Rijeka — Dinamo Zagrzeb — 29% 29% 42% — 45% 51% —
8 August NK Rudeš — Osijek 1:6 20% 26% 54% 50% 51% over 53% yes right
9 August Slaven Koprivnica — Varaždin 1:4 37% 29% 34% 34% 45% over 51% yes miss

Match postponed (confirmed) — the new date is shown next to the match as soon as it is set. The prediction stays: it was published before the postponement was announced. It counts neither in the numerator nor the denominator of the tally — there is no result to compare it against yet. It settles once the match is played.

The underlined cell is the result that actually occurred. "Call" refers to the 1X2 market only: whether the outcome the model rated highest actually happened. The notes next to O 2.5 and BTTS say how those markets settled — they are not a verdict on the model.

SuperSport HNL

round 3
called right 4/5 league total 21/34 · 62%
Match Score Model 1 / X / 2 Market on result O 2.5 BTTS Call
14 August Dinamo Zagrzeb — NK Rudeš 4:0 93% 5% 2% — 84% over 43% no right
16 August HNK Gorica — Hajduk Split 1:2 22% 28% 49% 49% 43% over 48% yes right
15 August Istra 1961 — Slaven Koprivnica 3:0 42% 28% 30% 46% 49% over 54% no right
15 August Osijek — Lokomotiva Zagrzeb 1:0 42% 28% 30% 45% 49% under 54% no right
16 August Varaždin — Rijeka 2:0 29% 31% 39% 28% 37% under 45% no miss

The underlined cell is the result that actually occurred. "Call" refers to the 1X2 market only: whether the outcome the model rated highest actually happened. The notes next to O 2.5 and BTTS say how those markets settled — they are not a verdict on the model.

SuperSport HNL

round 4
called right 4/5 league total 21/34 · 62%

No odds available for this league — the market column stays empty. There is nothing to compare the model against.

Match Score Model 1 / X / 2 Market on result O 2.5 BTTS Call
22 August Dinamo Zagrzeb — Varaždin 3:1 66% 22% 13% — 53% over 47% yes right
23 August Hajduk Split — Osijek 4:0 54% 26% 20% — 48% over 50% no right
23 August Rijeka — Istra 1961 3:2 55% 27% 18% — 43% over 45% yes right
21 August NK Rudeš — Lokomotiva Zagrzeb 4:1 17% 22% 61% — 59% over 56% yes miss
22 August Slaven Koprivnica — HNK Gorica 2:0 43% 28% 28% — 47% under 52% no right

The underlined cell is the result that actually occurred. "Call" refers to the 1X2 market only: whether the outcome the model rated highest actually happened. The notes next to O 2.5 and BTTS say how those markets settled — they are not a verdict on the model.

SuperSport HNL

round 5
called right 3/5 league total 21/34 · 62%
Match Score Model 1 / X / 2 Market on result O 2.5 BTTS Call
31 August HNK Gorica — Rijeka 0:0 23% 30% 47% 25% 39% under 45% no miss
31 August Hajduk Split — Lokomotiva Zagrzeb 2:0 59% 24% 17% 65% 52% under 51% no right
29 August Istra 1961 — Dinamo Zagrzeb 2:2 16% 23% 60% 22% 53% over 51% yes miss
30 August Osijek — Slaven Koprivnica 3:0 48% 27% 25% 54% 51% over 54% no right
29 August Varaždin — NK Rudeš 2:0 69% 19% 12% 71% 62% under 54% no right

The underlined cell is the result that actually occurred. "Call" refers to the 1X2 market only: whether the outcome the model rated highest actually happened. The notes next to O 2.5 and BTTS say how those markets settled — they are not a verdict on the model.

SuperSport HNL

round 6
called right 4/5 league total 21/34 · 62%
Match Score Model 1 / X / 2 Market on result O 2.5 BTTS Call
4 September Varaždin — Istra 1961 0:0 46% 29% 25% 27% 43% under 49% no miss
5 September Dinamo Zagrzeb — HNK Gorica 1:0 76% 17% 7% 79% 59% under 44% no right
5 September Rijeka — Osijek 4:1 53% 28% 20% 50% 43% over 46% yes right
6 September NK Rudeš — Hajduk Split 0:4 12% 19% 68% 71% 63% over 55% no right
6 September Slaven Koprivnica — Lokomotiva Zagrzeb 2:1 40% 27% 32% 40% 52% over 57% yes right

The underlined cell is the result that actually occurred. "Call" refers to the 1X2 market only: whether the outcome the model rated highest actually happened. The notes next to O 2.5 and BTTS say how those markets settled — they are not a verdict on the model.

SuperSport HNL

round 7
called right 2/5 league total 21/34 · 62%
Match Score Model 1 / X / 2 Market on result O 2.5 BTTS Call
12 September Lokomotiva Zagrzeb — Rijeka 1:1 27% 29% 44% 27% 44% under 50% yes miss
12 September Osijek — Dinamo Zagrzeb 4:2 19% 25% 56% 20% 54% over 54% yes miss
13 September Hajduk Split — Slaven Koprivnica 1:0 65% 22% 14% 70% 56% under 51% no right
13 September Istra 1961 — NK Rudeš 3:2 67% 20% 13% 63% 61% over 54% yes right
14 September HNK Gorica — Varaždin 2:2 32% 32% 37% 28% 37% over 45% yes miss

The underlined cell is the result that actually occurred. "Call" refers to the 1X2 market only: whether the outcome the model rated highest actually happened. The notes next to O 2.5 and BTTS say how those markets settled — they are not a verdict on the model.

A single round says nothing about model quality. Over a dozen matches, a coin flip can look like an edge. The reference point remains the backtest below; the current season only becomes statistically meaningful after several dozen rounds.

Starting point: tested on history

Before we publish a single prediction, here is how the method performed on history. For every forecast the model only ever saw matches played earlier — no peeking.

League Matches Brier — model Brier — market Difference
Ekstraklasa 1224 0.6302 0.6242 +0.0060
Polish 1. Liga 309 0.6321 0.6278 +0.0043
Czechia 1104 0.5739 0.5696 +0.0043
Croatia 1259 0.5718 0.5636 +0.0082
Total 3896 — — —

Brier score = mean squared error of the 1X2 forecast. Lower is better. A positive difference = model behind the market.

In all four leagues the bookmakers’ closing line (margin removed) beats the model. That is our public baseline: we measure whether we are closing the gap — we do not pretend otherwise.

Season 2026/27 to date

League Matches Brier — model Brier — market
Ekstraklasa 69 0.6294 0.6234 (n=69)
Polish 1. Liga 69 0.6689 0.6683 (n=60)
Czechia 62 0.5787 0.5702 (n=55)
Croatia 34 0.4852 0.5418 (n=27)

The sample is still tiny — these numbers will swing hard from round to round. If the model comes out ahead of the market here, on this sample that is noise, not an edge: the honest reference remains the backtest above, where across thousands of matches the model loses to the closing line. The market Brier is computed only on matches with frozen odds, so the comparison covers the same sample.

How it works

1

Before the round — publication

Pre-round predictions, timestamped. Every match of the round, three markets: model 1X2 next to the devigged market, over/under 2.5 goals and BTTS. The full set of markets and model–market deviations are for the subscription.

2

Weekend — matches

Once published, nothing is edited or deleted. Timestamps and an append-only record are our credibility currency.

3

After the last match — settlement

All pre-match predictions fully revealed, result next to result. A misses section is mandatory — as visible as the hits.

The 2026/27 season is under way. We do not name a weekday — a round often ends on Monday — so instead of a promise, every section carries the date it is current as of.

What is free, and what subscription covers

Free access

  • Full track record and model performance — no login
  • Every round settled: predictions vs results, misses included
  • Every match of the round: model 1X2 next to the devigged market, plus over/under 2.5 goals and BTTS
  • Education: market reality, methodology, calibration

Subscription coming soon

  • Full probabilistic predictions, all markets — 4 leagues
  • Model–market deviations after devig (analysis, not signals)
  • Full Monte Carlo season simulations, per team
  • Paper trading with a CLV ledger — test your strategy and build discipline without risking money

Pricing follows once legal review is complete. You pay for data and analytical tools — not for tips. We do not sell tips and never will.

Get notified