Market reality
Education without judging bettors. Facts and numbers.
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Devigging — how to extract the market’s “clean” probability from a price
Devigging means stripping the margin (overround) out of the odds so that only probability remains. It is the basis of an honest model-versus-market comparison and of benchmarking against the closing line.
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Overround — why a bookmaker’s probabilities add up to more than 100%
The overround is the margin built into the odds. How to calculate it from prices, how large it tends to be with licensed operators in Poland, and why it is your hidden cost on every market.
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The 12% turnover tax — what a Polish bet really costs you
In Poland every legal bet carries a 12% tax on the stake, not on winnings. We calculate what that does to the effective price, how it compounds with the bookmaker margin, and why most bettors never see it.
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CLV — the only measure that tells you whether you bet well (before you know the result)
Closing Line Value is the gap between the price you took and the closing price. Why it is a better test of skill than winning or losing — and how we measure it here.
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